E*plore-ing the Simulation Design Space

One of the major puzzles in performing multi-agent-based simulations is the validity of their results. Optimisation of simulation parameters can lead to results that can be deceitful, optimistic, or plainly wrong. When the issue at stake is inherently complex, which is frequently the case with social phenomena, the search for emergent outcomes is closely related to macro effects deriving from micro behaviours, and the drawing of valid conclusions from the analysis of the observed results should be done with extra care. Multi-agent-based social simulation is increasingly used not only to understand and explain phenomena, but also to predict outcomes and even to prescribe measures to be adopted by colective (public or private) entities. The notion that conclusions of simulation studies will be applied to real social settings brings an added responsibility to the researcher. Principled methodologies are needed that can minimise the ad hoc nature of experimentation. In this paper, we present a set of methodological principles to explore the space of possible designs involved in simulation experiments. Principles are needed not only for the design of agents and the societies they are immersed in, but also for the design of models of simulations themselves. Several techniques are shown that can provide an increasingly broad covering of the space of possible experiment designs. We also explore some alternatives on how to progressively complexify particular mechanisms.